AGP Executive Report

Slovenia-EU Foreign Policy: Slovenia vetoed an EU-wide statement condemning Israel’s new West Bank settlement plans (E1), backing a narrower message issued by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas—an episode that fuels debate over Ljubljana’s stance inside the bloc. Aviation & Tourism: United Airlines announced its biggest international expansion yet for 2027, adding 10 new destinations including Ljubljana nonstop from Newark (from May 12) plus routes to Luxembourg, Marseille, Ibiza, Valencia, Terceira, Olbia and Catania—using the Airbus A321XLR on several links. Port & Trade: Port of Koper reported a 5% rise in container throughput in H1 2026 to 656,150 TEU, citing new cargo flows and added Far East services, while vehicle volumes fell amid weaker exports to Turkey, Israel and the wider Middle East. AI & Robotics: Slovenian-led Veeda AI raised over $90m to build virtual environments where robots can learn tasks before operating in the real world. Digital Safety Regulation: New Zealand introduced a bill to set a minimum age of 16 for access to social media and certain AI companions deemed harmful, following Australia’s stricter child social media ban.

Circular Economy Skills: A Slovenia-led Erasmus+ project, Become, is training educators and company practitioners for circular-economy know-how, after Eurostat showed only 12.2% of EU materials came from recycled sources in 2024—far below the 2030 target. Air Connectivity for Slovenia: United Airlines announced its biggest international expansion yet for 2027, including a four-times-weekly Newark–Ljubljana link and new nonstop routes to several European destinations, supported by its Airbus A321XLR and a new extra-space Economy Plus seating option. EU Trade Defenses: The EU is widening trade defenses against China as imports of Chinese vehicles, batteries and machinery rise, with new anti-dumping duties and tighter import monitoring. Slovenia Macro Signals: Slovenia’s economic sentiment fell in August to the lowest in three months, with manufacturing confidence worsening while services improved. Housing Market Turnaround: Eurostat data points to a recovery in European residential transactions, with Slovenia among the strongest performers (+~30% in 2025 vs 2024). Climate Pressure on Food: Extreme heat and drought are cutting European harvest forecasts by up to 14% below the five-year average, with Slovenia and Croatia seeing moderate impacts. Regional Business Links: Cablenet is expanding Cypriot football content across the Balkans via Arena Sport, including Slovenia.

Airline Expansion (Slovenia in the spotlight): United Airlines unveiled its biggest international growth plan yet for summer 2027, adding 10 new cities across Europe and Asia, including nonstop Newark–Ljubljana starting May 12 (4x weekly) and other new links from Newark to Luxembourg, Marseille, Ibiza, Valencia, Terceira, Olbia and Catania. New Aircraft & Passenger Product: The expansion also debuts United’s long-range Airbus A321XLR (“Born to Explore”), with a new Economy Plus seating concept that blocks the middle seat for extra space. EU Trade Policy: The EU is stepping up trade defenses as imports from China rise, with new anti-dumping duties and tighter monitoring amid surging Chinese vehicle, battery and machinery inflows. Slovenia Macro Signals: Slovenia’s economic sentiment fell in August to the lowest level in three months, with weaker manufacturing confidence and slightly improved services and retail. Housing Market (Slovenia stands out): Eurostat data points to a recovery in European residential transactions, with Slovenia among the strongest performers, up nearly 30% in 2025 vs 2024. Local Business/Tech: Criteo expanded its integration with ChatGPT Ads across 31 European markets, aiming to help advertisers reach consumers during conversational AI product discovery.

EU Football Governance: Slovenian UEFA chief Aleksander Čeferin says he won’t run to replace FIFA boss Gianni Infantino, but warns Infantino must quit or face a leadership challenge in March, as UEFA threatens a boycott over Infantino’s abandoned plan to bring private investors into FIFA tournament rights. EU Enlargement: Commissioner Marta Kos previews a revamped EU enlargement process with gradual integration, tougher candidate checks and a “Helsinki Moment” approach, aiming to restart momentum ahead of October EU leader talks. Port & Trade: Slovenia’s Luka Koper reports H1 2026 container throughput up 5% to 656,150 TEUs, driven by new hinterland cargo flows and a new Far East service, while vehicle volumes fall 9% amid weaker Middle East demand. Slovenian Economy & Policy: Prime Minister Janez Janša visits the AGRA Fair and announces next-year agricultural policy changes focused on cutting bureaucracy and supporting young farmers. Business Events: Bakery industry trade fair IBAKTECH returns Oct 14–17, 2026 with expanded halls and near-full bookings, including Slovenian participation.

FIFA Governance Shake-up: UEFA chief Aleksander Čeferin ruled out replacing Gianni Infantino as FIFA president, but warned Infantino must quit or face a leadership challenge ahead of the March election—after Infantino’s abandoned plan to sell stakes in FIFA tournament rights to private investors triggered backlash and threatened boycotts. Port & Trade: Slovenia’s Luka Koper reported container throughput up 5% to 656,150 TEUs in H1 2026, supported by new manufacturing-linked cargo flows and a new Far East service, while vehicle volumes fell 9% amid weaker demand in Turkey, Israel and the wider Middle East. EU Mobility & Tourism: easyJet said it will add capacity for the UK August Bank Holiday, offering 800,000+ seats and 56 more destinations, including a new route to Ljubljana. Slovenian Agriculture Policy: Prime Minister Janez Janša visited the AGRA Fair and announced plans to cut bureaucratic hurdles and support young farmers as agricultural policy changes are set for next year. AI & Legal Services: UK-based ClearPath AI launched in Birmingham, pitching an AI-native “operating system” for legal and professional services after securing £1m pre-seed backing. Sports Spotlight (Local Interest): Luka Dončić drew attention after photos from his Slovenia minicamp showed a slimmer physique ahead of a key Lakers season.

FIFA Governance Clash: UEFA chief Aleksander Ceferin, a Slovenian, says he’s “not interested” in replacing Gianni Infantino but warns Infantino must quit or face a leadership challenge at the March FIFA Congress in Morocco, as UEFA threatens a boycott and federations withdraw support over Infantino’s abandoned plan to sell stakes in FIFA tournament rights to private investors. AI for Legal Services: Slovenian legal-tech entrepreneur Rudi Kesic launched ClearPath AI in Birmingham, pitching an “AI-native operating system” for professional services that can interpret documents, do research and reasoning, and move work forward. Payments & Compliance: An EU court ruling in the Jenec case says banks can’t refuse basic-feature payment accounts just because an applicant appears on a third-country sanctions list; refusals must be based on an individual risk assessment. Digital Signatures Dispute: Bosnia’s IDDEEA is again offering free qualified electronic signatures despite an ongoing legal fight with the personal data regulator, with about 20,000 users already using the service. Cash Still Matters in the Euro Area: An ECB survey shows Greece and Slovenia are at the top for cash acceptance (99% and 100% respectively), even as card and mobile payments keep gaining ground. Infrastructure & Trade: Croatia’s Drniš bypass construction has started, with phases expected to support the Šibenik port and regional connectivity. Youth Employment Watch: Serbia’s NEET rate is falling but remains higher than most EU countries, with 2025 data showing 13% of ages 15–24 not in work or study. Business & Tech Regulation: A global roundup highlights how countries are tightening rules on children’s social media access, including Australia’s under-16 ban and upcoming UK measures. Slovenia in the Spotlight: Ljubljana hosts Aquaculture Europe in September for the EAS’s 50th anniversary, positioning Slovenia’s smaller, adaptable aquaculture sector for global change.

Lakers Uncertainty & Luka Dončić Watch: ESPN reports teams are monitoring Doncic in case the Jeanie Buss-era turmoil “goes sideways,” with the Warriors, Nuggets and Mavericks named as potential suitors—an issue for Slovenia’s own star as LA’s stability questions grow. EU Banking Rules: The CJEU’s Jenec ruling says banks can’t refuse basic payment accounts just because an applicant appears on a third-country sanctions list; they must do an individual risk assessment and use proportionate measures. Digital Signatures in the Balkans: Bosnia’s IDDEEA is again offering free qualified electronic signatures despite a legal fight with the personal data regulator, with around 20,000 users already onboard. Cash Still Dominates in the Euro Area: An ECB survey finds Greece at 99% cash acceptance and Slovenia matching that level, while card and mobile payments keep gaining ground. Slovenia Tourism Spotlight: Marella Cruises points Brits to Koper as a cheaper “Venice-like” Adriatic alternative, citing rising search interest. Energy/Water Stress in Europe: Drought in Serbia has exposed a century-old steam tugboat wreck (“Sava’s Titanic”), underscoring trade and power disruptions across the region.

Cherry Laurel Ban Push: Ireland’s wildlife groups want a clear timeline to phase out and ban cherry laurel after a risk assessment links the non-native shrub to major biodiversity loss and costly control efforts. RTV Slovenia Funding Referendum: A consultative vote asks whether to abolish the €14.02 monthly RTV contribution, but critics warn the question may be narrower than the real issue: how public media should be financed and governed. NLB vs Addiko Deal: Slovenia’s NLB lost its bid for Austria’s Addiko after failing to reach the 50%+1 threshold, though it says it will keep pursuing growth across the former Yugoslavia. Regional Banking Strategy: The Addiko outcome highlights how Slovenia’s biggest bank is still repositioning toward a broader financial services platform, not just one acquisition. Tourism & Trade Angle: Marella Cruises is promoting Koper as a cheaper “Venice-like” alternative, betting on rising cruise interest and Slovenia’s Adriatic draw. Energy/Climate Spillover: Europe’s drought is exposing historic river relics, with Serbia’s “Sava’s Titanic” surfacing as trade and water supplies take hits. Sports With Slovenia Links: Luka Dončić’s Lakers trip to Slovenia mixes team prep with high-profile fan moments—and a reported six-figure jet bill—while Shakhtar’s Champions League home games shift to Chelsea due to war constraints.

LJUBLJANA & BUSINESS SPOTLIGHT: Slovenia’s producer prices kept climbing, with July producer price inflation accelerating to a three-year high (up 3.4% year-on-year), led by mining and quarrying (+7.4%) and manufacturing (+2.0%), a sign of cost pressure that can feed into consumer prices. BANKING & REGIONAL DEALS: Nova Ljubljanska banka (NLB) lost its bid for Austria’s Addiko, missing the 50%+1 threshold as Raiffeisen took control with 55%, but NLB says it will keep pushing its broader financial-services strategy across the former Yugoslavia. POLITICAL RISK & NATIONAL SECURITY: Slovenia’s President Nataša Pirc Musar faced renewed scrutiny over a long-time Russian-linked friend, after reporting tied the friend to Roman Jeglič, a former senior intelligence figure, raising fresh questions for business confidence. MEDIA FUNDING DEBATE: Slovenia’s RTV referendum is framed as a question about abolishing the €14.02 monthly RTV contribution, but the coverage stresses it’s consultative and that the real issue is who controls public broadcasting financing. COST OF LIVING PRESSURE: Inflation: producer prices rising faster in July adds to the week’s macro pressure. EUROPEAN FOOTBALL & CROSS-BORDER BUSINESS: Shakhtar Donetsk agreed to play Champions League home games at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, a reminder of how sanctions and war reshape sports logistics and spending. TOURISM & TRADE: Marella Cruises is promoting Koper as a cheaper “Venice alternative,” betting on rising cruise interest and Italian-influenced branding. SPORTS ECONOMY (SLOVENIA CONNECTION): Luka Dončić’s Lakers trip to Slovenia sparked estimates that private-jet travel alone could cost around €250,000 one way, with the wider bill potentially near €500,000 round-trip.

Banking & M&A: Slovenia’s NLB lost its bid for Austria’s Addiko after falling short of the 50%+1 threshold, with Raiffeisen taking control—yet NLB says it will keep pushing deals across the former Yugoslavia and broaden into insurance and asset management. Inflation Watch: Slovenia’s producer prices accelerated in July to the highest rate in three years (3.4% year-on-year), with output prices up 0.7% month-on-month—another sign of cost pressure building. Public Media & Governance: Slovenia’s RTV referendum question is framed around abolishing the €14.02 monthly RTV contribution, but critics warn voters may be deciding a narrower issue than the real one: how public broadcasting is financed and who influences it. Security & Politics: New scrutiny surrounds President Nataša Pirc Musar’s long-time Russian-linked associate Viktorija Krivolucka, with analysts calling it a national security matter rather than a “mini scandal.” Energy Poverty (Regional): Croatia proposes amendments to its Electricity Market Act to ban disconnections for vulnerable, energy-poor households and require suppliers to offer warnings and flexible repayment plans. EU/Ukraine Sports Business: Shakhtar Donetsk agreed to play Champions League home games at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge due to security limits in Ukraine, pending UEFA approvals.

RTV Referendum & Public Media Funding: Slovenia’s consultative vote asks whether to abolish the mandatory €14.02 monthly RTV contribution, but the “yes” outcome won’t automatically change the law—raising the real question of how public broadcasting should be financed and governed. Banking Deal in the Balkans: NLB’s bid to take majority control of Austria’s Addiko failed when Raiffeisen cleared the 55% threshold, though NLB says it will keep pushing its regional expansion and broaden into insurance and asset management. Inflation Watch: Slovenia’s producer prices accelerated to a three-year high in July, with industrial output prices up 3.4% year-on-year, adding pressure to the cost base for firms. Presidential Scrutiny & Security Risks: Growing political pressure surrounds President Nataša Pirc Musar over links tied to a Russian-connected close associate, with analysts framing it as a national security issue rather than a minor political scandal. Energy & Consumer Protection (Regional): Croatia proposes stronger rules to prevent electricity disconnections for vulnerable, energy-poor households, including warnings on consumption spikes and flexible repayment options. Drought’s Economic Ripples: Serbia’s “Sava’s Titanic” shipwreck surfaced as rivers run dry across Europe, a reminder of how heat and drought are disrupting trade, power and water supplies. EU/Global Policy Signals: The EU faces renewed debate over sensitive data sharing and international rule-of-law tensions after US sanctions on the ICC president. Tech & Regulation: The US eased some UAV export controls while also imposing tariffs on certain drones—an approach aimed at boosting domestic production but likely raising costs for importers.

EU Energy Regulation: A German Commission official, Christof Lessenich, is being put forward to lead ACER, with the Ljubljana-based agency facing an overhaul of its founding rules and major new EU energy legislation expected in autumn. Renewables & Storage: GEN-I Sonce’s 220 MWh battery project in Romania moves forward as Waldevar Energy wins an EPC contract for delivery by Q3 2027, underlining how Slovenia-linked developers are scaling storage across the region. Slovenian Growth Watch: Slovenia’s Q2 GDP is reported up about 5% year-on-year, the strongest pace in four years, keeping the country in focus for investors tracking the euro area’s uneven recovery. Media Ownership & Independence: Bosnia’s journalists’ association warns that dismissals tied to Adria News ownership changes could undermine editorial independence, echoing concerns raised across Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. Pay Transparency Compliance: A look at how EU pay transparency penalties are landing in practice shows big differences across member states, while uncapped compensation and reversed burden of proof still apply. Drought & Trade Risks: Europe’s severe river low levels are disrupting trade and power, with historic wrecks surfacing in Serbia—another reminder that water stress is becoming a business issue, not just a climate story.

EU Energy Regulation Watch: Christof Lessenich is set to head ACER, with the Ljubljana-based agency facing an overhaul of its founding rules and new EU energy rules expected to run until 2040. Renewables & Storage: GEN-I Sonce’s 220 MWh battery storage project in Romania will be delivered by Waldevar Energy under an EPC deal, highlighting how storage is becoming a strategic grid asset. Construction Pulse: Eurostat shows EU construction activity weakened in June, while Cyprus stands out with a stronger project pipeline and housing demand. Media & Ownership: Bosnia’s journalists’ association warns that the dismissal of N1 Television director Amir Zukić after Adria News’ takeover could undermine editorial independence, echoing similar concerns across the region. Cyber & Payments Risk: Researchers describe a “Zombie Card” method that can revive expired Visa contactless cards for in-store purchases, raising new fraud concerns for issuers and terminals. Tourism Funding Pressure: Seven frontline EU countries ask for MFF support for tourism regions hit by security concerns tied to Russia and the Ukraine war. Climate & Emissions: Eurostat reports EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026, with Slovenia cutting emissions the most (-5.0%). Business Travel Demand: easyJet promotes “Bank Holiday Loophole” short breaks, including new routes to Ljubljana, signaling continued demand for low-cost weekend travel.

Slovenian Politics & Accountability: New reporting keeps pressure on President Nataša Pirc Musar after unresolved questions around her July tunnel crash, while foreign media highlight her close ties to Viktorija Krivolucka amid broader intelligence-sounding allegations. EU Investment Rules: A new EU foreign direct investment screening regulation entered into force, with Member States required to implement it by January 2028—dealmakers should plan for possible multi-country reviews. Croatia Banking Tax: Croatia plans a 50% levy on “excess” bank profits, targeting euro-era windfalls and raising questions for cross-border lenders. Tourism Under Geopolitical Strain: Seven frontline EU countries ask Brussels for funding as security concerns and war fears hit tourism and squeeze SMEs’ access to finance. Energy & Climate Risk: Extreme heat and drought are stressing Europe’s power system and damaging Croatia’s tourism and agriculture, with heat linked to lower labour productivity. Transport & Trade Links: Air China launches a new frequent route connecting Beijing and Zagreb via Bucharest, aiming to boost trade and tourism ties. Regional Infrastructure: Construction starts on the €38.5m Drniš bypass phases, with a Slovenian contractor consortium involved. Slovenia Economy: Slovenia’s Q2 GDP growth is reported at 5%, its strongest in four years.

Croatia Banking Tax: Croatia is hitting foreign-owned banks with a 50% levy on “excess” profits, targeting a sector that still posted €1.4bn net profit in 2025 and strong returns—an anti-inflation move that could reshape earnings for lenders tied to Milan, Vienna and Budapest. EU Climate Signals: Eurostat reports EU greenhouse-gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026 to 837m tonnes CO2e, while Slovenia cut emissions the most quarter-on-quarter (-5.0%), even as parts of the bloc saw output-linked increases. Energy Security Watch: Europe’s power system is showing summer stress: drought and heat reduced generation in several states, prompting an EU electricity coordination meeting and highlighting that installed capacity isn’t the same as real resilience. Slovenia-Linked Tech & Policy: The EU’s e-Evidence rules now let investigators in member states request digital data directly from major tech firms with fast deadlines, bypassing older cross-border legal channels. Regional Infrastructure: Croatia’s Drniš bypass enters construction for €38.5m (30 months), with Slovenian contractor CGP in the consortium—supporting wider corridor plans toward Bosnia and Herzegovina. Labour Market Pressure: A study flags Hungary’s steepest employment decline in Europe (-1.34% year-on-year), with Slovenia also down (-0.93%), pointing to ageing and migration pressures.

Slovenia Politics & Security: A growing intelligence scandal links President Nataša Pirc Musar’s long-time Russian friend Viktorija Krivolucka to a controversial former Slovenian intelligence officer who later fled to Russia, raising fresh questions about influence and ties. Slovenian Economy: Slovenia’s Q2 GDP grew 5% year-on-year, the strongest pace in four years, driven by stronger consumption and a sharp rise in investment, especially in buildings and structures. EU Digital Justice: The EU’s e-Evidence rules now fully apply, letting investigators in member states request digital data directly from tech firms with faster deadlines, reshaping how cross-border cases are handled. Media Ownership Watch: Journalists’ groups warn that the proposed sale of Adria News Network to Alpac Capital/European Future Media Investment needs urgent regulatory scrutiny due to potential impacts on competition and newsroom independence. Climate & Business Risk: Extreme heat is increasingly a direct economic threat for tourism and agriculture, while Europe’s power system is also showing summer vulnerability as drought and heat strain generation. Energy & Markets: Gasoline and diesel prices across Europe rose sharply versus last year, with the Strait of Hormuz risk still feeding uncertainty. International Trade: Spain’s trade deficit with the US narrowed, while the deficit with China widened, reflecting shifting export and import dynamics. Slovenia–Kazakhstan Ties: Slovenia and Kazakhstan reaffirmed plans to deepen trade and economic cooperation, highlighting recent diplomatic steps and joint commissions.